Geeklog Site

Peak Oil has started.

Thu, 08 Nov 2007 01:11:23 +1400

Peak Oil is about as scary as things can get, because unlike the environmental disaster that will take 50+ years to unfold, peak oil is going to happen within 20, and many are suspecting even quicker than that. My guess is that by 2020 the world will already be in chaos - so you better start preparing for the Long Emergency pretty soon. It will start with a financial crisis like we have never seen before, and my bet is that will start within 5 years, and maybe as soon as two - depending on how soon the USA does something really stupid. The only question is - will it be a slow slippery slide, or a rapid plummet. I'm personally hoping for a slow slide, but with my luck we won't get that luxury. Hang on to your hats folks, the roller coaster has reached the top of the ascent, and its all down hill from here.

"Oil prices hit a record high of $97 a barrel on Tuesday, but the next generation of consumers could look back on that price with envy. The dire predictions of a key report on international oil supplies released Wednesday suggest that oil prices could move irreversibly over the $100 a barrel threshold in the not too distant future, as the global economy faces a serious energy shortage.

This gloomy assessment comes from the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based organization representing the 26 rich, gas-guzzling member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The agency is not known for alarmist warnings, and its World Energy Outlook is typically viewed by policy wonks as a solid indicator of global energy supplies. In a marked change from its traditionally bland, measured tones, the IEA's 2007 report says governments need to make urgent, bold decisions on energy policy, or risk massive environmental and energy-supply crises within two decades — crises and shortages that could spark serious global conflicts."

Rest of the article is here:
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1681362,00.html?xid=rss-business

Running out of (affordable) Fuel - China

Mon, 05 Nov 2007 13:53:09 +1400

Its going to be interesting to watch what happens in China in the near term. If the current peak in oil prices remain for some time, its sure going to have an impact, but maybe this will be a good thing. China's rate of fuel consumption and generation of greenhouse gasses is simply devistating for our future - anything that slows it down is a good thing. But at some point China has to crash, and thats going to be ugly too. With China and the US correcting at the same time, the world economy is going to head south very quickly. The reduction of demand will be a good thing, but the social impact may be another issue.

"With crude oil closing in on $100 a barrel, the pinch of higher prices is being felt worldwide. In China, however, the impact of the hikes has been shortages at the pump, and tempers are running hot. ...
The crisis is largely one of China's own making. To reduce inflationary pressures on its red-hot economy, Beijing has not raised prices at the pump, which are set by the government, since May 2006. In that same period of time, international oil prices have risen about 30%, sticking refineries with spiraling costs for the crude they buy and shrinking profits for the gasoline they sell. Some smaller refineries stopped production altogether to avoid losses, while others begun hoarding their crude supplies, leading to gas shortages around the country. "

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1678731,00.html?xid=rss-business

Greenhouse gas levels 'far worse than predicted'

Tue, 09 Oct 2007 13:27:04 +1400

Just to confirm the story below, here is a news item from the ABC discussing the dire situation we are facing. I'm sure this data will be ignored as well. I can't believe people are so deaf to the warnings. Such stupid creatures we humans are.

Conservation scientist and Australian of the Year Tim Flannery has warned that huge industrial and economic changes need to be implemented quickly to slow the growth of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.

He says the actual levels of greenhouse gases present in the atmosphere are far beyond what has previously been modelled by climate scientists.

"What the report establishes is that the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is already above the threshold that could potentially cause dangerous climate change," he said.

"So if I was trying to summarise it, what it says is that we already stand an unacceptable risk of dangerous climate change and that the need for action is ever more urgent."

Busy busy busy

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 00:56:08 +1400

Sorry for the lack of action here at the moment, I'm busy putting together a new site, one thats will be more secure and allow guests to participate if they wish. There is a lot of work setting up a new service, but I hope to have the initial efforts online in the not to distant future.

Freelance Data Analyst for Hire

Wed, 11 Jul 2007 16:24:30 +1400

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Over the cliff

Thu, 24 May 2007 17:36:07 +1400

My greatest fear is that my expectations for the future will come true before I die.

I’m reading Derrick Jensen’s book “Endgame: The Problem of Civilization” and its taking quite a toll on my already battered and bruised psyche. I’m about a third of the way through it and it’s like all my inner darkest fears appearing in type before my eyes. So many of the concepts align with my view of where we are heading (over the edge) and even his writing style is a little similar (with far too many ideas per paragraph requiring heavy use of brackets!). I believe that the depth and breath of his thinking are several orders of magnitude beyond my own, but we are definitely reading from the same page (or writing to it if you will).

Derricks position is that we were inexorably doomed from the moment we started forming cities, for cities were responsible for the fundamental concept of a centralised (and more important, in their minds) group of people who needed to exploit (steal) the resources of surrounding groups of (less important) people, non-humans and landmass to be able to survive and grow. This concept scales from the small town right through to the global economy, the only thing that changes is the scale of the damage required to sustain the increasing vampiric centralised entity, damage (often through violence) to nature, eco-systems, plants, animals, and people – to the entire planet in fact.

To Derrick we sailed off the edge of the cliff some time ago, after 6000 years of building up momentum. We have already reached the zenith of our flight and the only future is the one gravity has in mind. We can certainly not go back, we cannot turn away either, or even go forward, our only path is the one projected when we left the cliff and there is a big X marking the spot where we are going to hit the bottom. At the moment the bottom is still a bit too far away to see clearly, but its rushing up to meet us pretty darn quickly.

So given this position, even Derrick’s suggestions that we ‘bring down civilisation’ to minimise the impact is not really going to help much either, though the notion of revenge is enticing. The only thing we can do is use what is already on the bus (lets call it a bus for this analogy) to try to cushion the impact. This means protecting as much of the natural world as possible in the hope that some remnants of it will crawl away from the twisted wreak that is our inevitable future. Our governments have been spending most of its time helping corporations collect fares from the passengers, from some as cash, from others in blood. More recently the bus drivers (scientists) have pointed out our current predicament and logical terminus, and the government is now drawing up plans to bolt papier-mâché wings onto the bus, and doubling the price of tickets while they are at it.

My only hope is that the time of impact will be some time after old age has done its work and I’m either dead or beyond caring. Is this a cop out? Maybe, I could go out in a blaze on glory, striking a blow against the machine, but what for? What’s the point of throwing myself on my sword if those in power are selling the swords in the first place. I also wonder the point of even trying to prevent the destruction sometimes, but it’s all we can do. I’m not going to blow up damns because I personally like not being in jail (the logical holding pen for dissenters), and want to live a meaningful (what ever that is) life with the ones I love, even if the end is neigh. I cannot see that I (or millions like me) can really make that much of a difference now, even blowing up damns, except to buy up as much of the natural world as possible for preservation, and try to keep it from those wanting to destroy it (though I accept in the end they, the all powerful corporations, will take it anyway through violence when the crunch comes).

Some days I think we might as well join the rest of the vultures feeding on the still thrashing carcass of the natural world. In what way are all my personal sacrifices making any different at all? At least our bellies will be full (immoral obesity) while we watch the inevitable disaster play out in slow motion before us.

* Warning: Don’t read Derrick’s book while carrying sharp implements or crossing high bridges. I really is that depressing because you know deep in your heart he is right.

C02 on the rise, why am I not suprised.

Tue, 22 May 2007 13:22:13 +1400

Here is a very troubling article about CO2 emission being even worse than the current worst case scenario. I shake my head in daily disbelief.
The telling line is - "The researchers found that no part of the world reduced the amount of carbon used to produce energy between 2000 and 2004, despite widespread publicity in support of greener sources of energy." I bet the results for 2004-2007 will be twice as shocking given China's massive expansion during this time.

===========Clip follows===========

The world's recent carbon dioxide emissions are growing more rapidly than even the worst-case climate scenario used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, say researchers.

The team, led by Michael Raupach of the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, looked at the growth of CO2 emissions and found that emissions growth suddenly accelerated in 2000. During the 1990s, emissions grew by 1.1% per year on average, but the number shot up to 3.3% between 2000 and 2004, when the study ended.

When they compared the recent emissions trend to those the UN-backed IPCC drew up as its "worst case scenario", the team found the reality was at least as bad, if not worse (see graph, right).

Warming waters

Wed, 16 May 2007 13:30:19 +1400

More interesting articles on the affects of global warming. Firstly indications of significant ice melts in Antarctica, and then Japan reporting a greater than expected warming of its surrounding oceans. I wonder if the rate of change will be the biggest surprise for us in the next few years?

Truth about 911

Wed, 09 May 2007 17:35:22 +1400

I've seen a lot of videos now, read a lot of articles. I think the American people are on the verge of critical mass regarding the conspiracy fact that is 911 and the war in Iraq. Google video is featuring this information in its top 10 now, so surely every American will now have the facts they need to do something about this!

Here is another series of three videos that are absolutely required viewing too. How much evidence to people need?

Global Warming Warning

Wed, 09 May 2007 03:01:49 +1400

Here is a great video clip on global warming and why we need to take action now, from the MIT Technology Review site.